青藏块体8级左右地震前中强地震 活动图像的相似性演化          下载免费PDF全文

朱红彬 《地球物理学报》2010,53(7):1611-1621

2008年5月12日,四川汶川发生8.0级特大地震.汶川地震前,青藏块体曾出现与2001年11月昆仑山口西8.1级特大地震前相似的大规模中强地震活动图像.为了探讨8级左右地震前的中强地震活动规律,本文研究了1900年以来中国大陆地区8级左右地震前中强地震的时空分布特征,认为①青藏块体8级左右地震前一般会出现中强地震活动图像的两阶段演化,第一阶段主要表现为中强地震沿印度板块与青藏块体接触带附近分布、青藏块体内部平静,第二阶段主要表现为中强地震向青藏块体内部扩展,形成大规模中强地震条带,未来主震一般发生在大规模中强地震主条带或者多组条带的交汇处.②该演化规律可能反映了印度板块作用于欧亚板块(尤其是青藏块体)产生的大区域地壳运动与构造应力场的动态变化过程,对预测青藏块体8级左右地震(尤其是8级以上特大地震)有一定意义,对预测新疆块体8级左右地震有参考价值,但尚不适用于中国大陆东部地区.③从更大范围考察中强地震活动图像的演化,有可能发现大地震前的场兆信息,对分析、预测未来的8级左右地震是一个有意义而且可行的方向.本文还对汶川地震的孕震过程和大规模中强地震条带的形成机理作了初步的探讨.  相似文献   

对地震预测有关问题的看法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈学忠 《国际地震动态》2010,(2):8-11

文中对地震预测的一些问题提出了看法,认为影响地震预测的诸多因素中,最为关键的问题在于地震成因。利用新的观测技术,发展新的地震成因理论,或将成为地震预测研究取得突破性进展的必经之路。  相似文献   

历史地震参数校订方法探讨——以北京延庆公元294年地震为例   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王健  吴宣  高阿甲  陈鲲  邵磊 《地震学报》2010,32(1):108-117

随着应用、研究的广泛和深入,对历史地震参数精度有了更高的要求.因此,有必要探讨历史地震参数校订的新思路和新方法.公元294年(晋惠帝元康四年)记载了北京延庆的一次强震事件.由于年代久远,史料简略,对史料的理解及对此次地震的参数存在分歧.通过系统收集、整理原有研究成果,详细分析其异同,并通过细读原始资料,实地考察以及定量分析1970年以来的中小地震时空分布特征与强震的关系等多个方面,对此次地震参数进行了校订.校订后的结果是:地震名称应为北京延庆海坨山地震,发震时间为公元294年9月,震级为6级,震中位置为115.85°E、40.59°N,震中误差为Ⅱ类.并以此为例,探讨了历史地震参数校订的一般原则和方法.  相似文献   

Dissecting large earthquakes in Japan: Role of arc magma and fluids     

Dapeng  Zhao  M. Santosh    Akira  Yamada 《Island Arc》2010,19(1):4-16

We synthesized information from recent high-resolution tomographic studies of large crustal earthquakes which occurred in the Japanese Islands during 1995–2008. Prominent anomalies of low-velocity and high Poisson's ratio are revealed in the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the mainshock hypocenters, which may reflect arc magma and fluids that are produced by a combination of subducting slab dehydration and corner flow in the mantle wedge. Distribution of 164 crustal earthquakes ( M 5.7–8.0) that occurred in Japan during 1885–2008 also shows a correlation with the distribution of low-velocity zones in the crust and uppermost mantle. A qualitative model is proposed to explain the geophysical observations recorded so far in Japan. We consider that the nucleation of a large earthquake is not entirely a mechanical process, but is closely related to the subduction dynamics and physical and chemical properties of materials in the crust and upper mantle; in particular, the arc magma and fluids.  相似文献   

Ground‐motion attenuation relationship for the Sumatran megathrust earthquakes     

Kusnowidjaja Megawati  Tso‐Chien Pan 《地震工程与结构动力学》2010,39(8):827-845

A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering M_w up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Earthquake response of arch dams to spatially varying ground motion     

Anil K. Chopra  Jin‐Ting Wang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2010,39(8):887-906

The response of two arch dams to spatially varying ground motions recorded during earthquakes is computed by a recently developed linear analysis procedure, which includes dam–water–foundation rock interaction effects and recognizes the semi‐unbounded extent of the rock and impounded water domains. By comparing the computed and recorded responses, several issues that arise in analysis of arch dams are investigated. It is also demonstrated that spatial variations in ground motion, typically ignored in engineering practice, can have profound influence on the earthquake‐induced stresses in the dam. This influence obviously depends on the degree to which ground motion varies spatially along the dam–rock interface. Thus, for the same dam, this influence could differ from one earthquake to the next, depending on the epicenter location and the focal depth of the earthquake relative to the dam site. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Coseismic Response of Water Levels Recorded in Three Wells in Hainan,China to the Two Sumatra-Andaman Strong Earthquakes     

Li Zhixiong  Gu Shenyi  Yuan Xiwen  Liu Wei  Ming Suihu  Yang Guang  Guo Nan 《中国地震研究》2008,22(4):448-459

The characteristics of seismic water level fluctuations of the two Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 on December 26,2004 and March 29, 2005 recorded at Jiaji well, Qionghai, Hainan were analyzed, the features of the infrequent ＂step＂ changes of well water level after the two earthquakes were also analyzed and the mechanism of the ＂step change＂ of well water level was discussed. Then the high-sample-rate digital observation data of seismically-induced water level fluctuations of the Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 recorded at Nanbin well, Sanya and Tanniu well, Wenchang were analyzed. The results suggest that the dominant period of the seismic well water level fluctuation in all three wells was comparatively accordant, the amplitudes of seismic water level fluctuation of the same earthquake in different wells were clearly different, the time duration of seismic water level fluctuations of different earthquakes at the same well was also clearly different.  相似文献   

利用GPS连续观测资料进行强震危险性预测的探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨国华  张风霜  武艳强  韩月萍  沈午春  杨博 《地震》2008,28(1):33-39

中国地壳运动观测网络基准站自1999运行以来已经积累了8年多的观测资料,目前针对地震预测、观测对象和数据处理方法,广义地提出了"点、线、面"的分析方法。实际应用表明,利用"线"的分析方法可能是比较好的方法,它最大的优点是在恰当的空间范围内不但可降低噪声,而且可突出异态信息。在目前较低测控能力的基础上,可通过全空间扫描与现象分析发现:①距昆仑山口西地震震中最近的德令哈观测站相对于拉萨观测站在震前较早的时间,其EW向就出现了缓慢变化,乃至闭锁(或无差异变化),直至地震发生为止,持续时间超过2年,闭锁数值10 mm以上,震后恢复正常;②云南地区数次强震震前下关观测站相对于泸州观测站EW向出现了闭锁或低于正常的变化,2003年强震之后恢复正常;最近的普洱强震自2006年初EW与SN向均出现了相对闭锁,两个方向的数值分别接近和达到10 mm;此外,每阶段异常的持续时间均超过1年;③塔什—乌什间EW向在新疆巴楚地震前出现了闭锁性活动,时间2年以上,数值约10 mm,震后恢复正常;目前SN向有相对闭锁迹象,并正在趋于明朗;④鼎新—西宁间EW方向有相对闭锁的迹象,但时间尚短;⑤通过寻找相对"闭锁"区段有可能成为判定强震危险性存在与否的主要方法。由此推测,若普洱6.4级地震后闭锁不解除,川滇菱形块体的西边界构造带及周围地区仍是近期强震最有可能发生的地区,其次是新疆的西天山地区,目前青藏高原东北缘尚不明朗。  相似文献   

2007年苏门答腊8．5级、8．3级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

周龙泉  马宏生  夏红  周俊杰  邵志刚 《地震》2008,28(1):40-46

2007年9月12日印尼苏门答腊发生了8.5级地震,9月13日其西北边又发生了8.3级地震,震后在附近还发生了一系列6级以上强震。该文依次计算了苏门答腊8.5级地震后各次地震前其所在主破裂面的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明,2007年苏门答腊8.5级地震的后续强震都发生在库仑破裂应力显著增加区,其应力变化值均大于0.01 MPa,即后续强震可能都是被触发的。  相似文献   

利用重复地震研究广东阳江地区地壳介质变化   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

叶秀薇  闻则刚  刘锦  杨马陵  胡秀敏 《地震》2008,28(4):103-111

利用射线追踪方法对广东阳江地区的重复地震进行位置归一处理, 提高走时精度以达到观测地壳介质变化的目的。 文中计算了阳江地区2002年1月至2007年9月M_L≥2.0重复地震序列经射线追踪法校正后的P波走时差。 结果显示, 在2004年阳江4.9级地震前信宜台、 湛江台、 肇庆台的记录观察到该地区短期的地壳介质速度明显升高的现象。  相似文献